Purpose: We aimed to investigate the impact of hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA and HBV genotypes/subgenotypes on the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).
Patients and methods: A prospective cohort of patients infected with chronic HBV in a surveillance program for HCC since 1997 was studied. Ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein evaluation were regularly performed to detect HCC. Risk factors for HCC and the relationship between HBV DNA and HBV genotypes were determined.
Results: Among 1,006 patients with a median follow-up of 7.7 years, 86 patients (8.5%) developed HCC. With reference to the low HBV DNA stratum (log HBV DNA </= 4.5 copies/mL), the hazard ratio for HCC of the intermediate HBV DNA stratum (log HBV DNA > 4.5 to 6.5 copies/mL) was 1.62 (95% CI, 1.05 to 2.48; P = .027) and that of the high HBV DNA stratum (log HBV DNA > 6.5 copies/mL) was 2.73 (95% CI, 1.76 to 4.25; P < .001). Among patients with genotyping results, 330 patients had HBV genotype B and 439 patients had HBV genotype C (94 subgenotype Ce and 345 subgenotype Cs). With reference to HBV genotype B, HBV subgenotype Ce has the highest risk of HCC (hazard ratio = 2.75; 95% CI, 1.66 to 4.56; P < .0001) and HBV subgenotype Cs has intermediate risk (hazard ratio = 1.70; 95% CI, 1.09 to 2.64; P = .020). On multivariate analysis, HBV DNA, HBV genotypes, liver cirrhosis, male sex, older age, and lower serum albumin were independent risk factors of HCC.
Conclusion: High HBV DNA level and HBV genotype C, particularly subgenotype Ce, increased the risk of HCC in chronic hepatitis B.